A look at who could have power in the Guildhall with a third of the seats up for election
The Guildhall, Hull City Council’s headquarters (Image: Hull Live)
As May’s local elections draw closer, here we will set out how the various outcomes could affect the balance of power on Hull City Council. On May 7, a third of the council’s seats are up for grabs.
Next month, residents in the majority of Hull’s wards will get the chance to elect a councillor. Elections will take place in 19 of the council‘s 21 wards. This is because, unlike other wards which have three councillors, Ings and Kingswood only have two who are not currently due to contest their seats.
Going into the election, the Liberal Democrats run the council with a majority of one. The current political weighting of the council’s 57 seats is as follows:
- 29 – Liberal Democrats
- 23 – Labour Party
- 5 – Independents
Of the 19 seats up for election, 11 are currently held by the Liberal Democrats, while the other eight are held by Labour. This means the minimum number of seats each group could end up with if they lost every seat they currently hold this May is:
- 18 – Liberal Democrats
- 15 – Labour
- 5 – Independents
This is the base that we will be working with to assess potential outcomes. No matter what happens in the election, the 38 seats listed immediately above, will not change.
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What could happen after the election?
In order to keep their majority on the council, the Liberal Democrats will have to maintain, or build upon, their current figure of 29 councillors. If they were to end the election with 28 councillors or fewer, they would not have enough for a majority and would have to rely on support from others, such as the independent councillors, for support.
Essentially, in order to keep their majority, the Lib Dems have to hold their 11 seats that are up for election. If they were to lose any of their seats, they would have to gain an equal number of current Labour seats to ensure they have a majority.
The only other party who could possibly form a majority after May 7 is Labour. Gaining six more councillors from the Liberal Democrats would take the party over the 29 mark, giving them a majority in the Guildhall.
While other parties could theoretically become the largest in the council, it would be impossible for any other group to form a majority. If a party that currently has no councillors, such as the Greens, Reform UK, or the Conservatives, were to win all 19 seats that are up for grabs, though they would become the largest party, they would still rely on support from others in the chamber to pass key votes – at least until another third of seats are elected in 2027.
Should Reform UK, the Greens or Conservatives won every seat up for election, it would leave the council’s weighting as follows.
- 19 – eg. Reform UK/Greens/Conservatives
- 18 – Liberal Democrats
- 15- Labour
- 5 – Independent
If for example, Reform UK were to follow up their Mayoral victory last year with a clean sweep of all 19 seats, they would find themselves in a situation eight seats short of a majority, and having to rely on the support of either Labour or Lib Dem councillors, or the five independents, all of whom have previously stood for either Labour or the Lib Dems.
In the event no party has 29 councillors after this year’s election, Hull City Council will become a ‘hung council’ with no overall control. The largest party will typically run the authority as a minority administration, as was the case between 2002 and 2007.
A full list of candidates running in Hull can be found here.
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